Formula for Success

        There is a simple formula for success that the respective coaches of the final 4 teams have mastered. Though each team has their own individual style and tempo, all of the teams have similar personnel. Kansas, North Carolina, Memphis, and UCLA each have a star point guard, several athletic wing players who can shoot from the perimeter, and a stable of big men that can rebound the ball and finish around the basket. Each of these teams has a fair amount of experience as well. It’s a simple formula for success and it starts with recruiting…
The star players in the final 4 include Tyler Hansbrough, Ty Lawson, and Wayne Ellington from North Carolina, Kevin Love and Darren Collison from UCLA, Derrick Rose and Chris Douglas Roberts of Memphis, and Darrell Arthur, Brandon Rush and Mario Chalmers of Kansas. Shockingly, all of these players were rated as a 4 or 5 star player (out of 5 stars) by rivals.com, a scouting service, coming out of high school. It goes beyond just having a few star players who were regarded this highly coming out of high school.
Consider Memphis’s roster, perhaps the most athletic team in the final 4. Derrick Rose…5 star. Chris Douglas-Roberts, Robert Dozier, Antonio Anderson, Doneal Mack…4 stars. The teams 5 leading scorers were all highly regarded before ever playing a game Memphis. As we break down Memphis we find a star point guard in Rose, several athletic wing players that can shoot the ball in Douglas-Roberts, Mack, Anderson, Andre Allen, and Jeff Robinson, and a strong athletic frontline that can run the up-tempo offense the Tigers run in Robert Dozier, Joey Dorsey, and Sean Taggart. Throw in the experience of having gone to back to back elite eight’s, and what do all the ingredients of this formula equal? They equal a very good basketball team heading to the final 4. Success.
Now lets breakdown the Tar Heels roster. Since arriving in Chapel Hill four years ago, Roy Williams has signed just two players ranked under 4 stars, Will Graves, a local player, and Quentin Thomas. This is quite an amazing feat. Apparently Roy is a likeable guy. His recruiting reminds me of what is happening at Kentucky right now, where Billy Gillispie signed Patrick Patterson and Alex Legion for his first year in Lexington, a five star and four star respectfully. He then followed that up with the signings of Deandre Liggins, a five star point guard, and Darius Miller and Kevin Galloway, 2 four star wings. Billy and Roy seem to have a grudge against those players ranked under 4 stars. One would imagine big things will happen in Lexington soon. Back to the Heels, they have a star point guard in Ty Lawson, several wings who can shoot and slash in Ellington, Ginyard, Green, and Graves, and one of the best frontcourt stables in the tournament which includes All American Tyler Hansbrough, Deon Thompson, and Alex Stepheson. Mix these ingredients together, and VUALA!… another team destined for success.
As for the Jayhawks, they too have their fair share of talent. They have more than just one star point guard. Sheron Collins and Mario Chalmers both share the lead guard duties for Kansas. Both 5 stars out of high school. Brandon Rush and Russell Robinson serve as the perimeter threats for KU, both 5 stars yet again. Their front court is in my opinion the best in this final 4. Sophomore Darrell Arthur, yet another five star, teams up with seniors Sasha Kahn and Darnell Jackson, and freshman Cole Aldrich, who are the only players who were not five stars to get playing time for the Jayhawks, and they were all 4 stars! These front court players are long, strong, and can play basketball. The Jayhawks had some extra motivation on the side due to the bitter taste left in their mouth after losing to UCLA in last year’s elite eight. Once again stir the pot and we get a stew of success.
Rounding out the final 4 is the UCLA bruins. On paper this may actually be the least talented team in this final 4, despite having gone to the final four each of the last two seasons returning almost all of their players, and adding 5 star freshman All American Kevin Love. The one thing they have on the other teams is that experience. They too have a star point guard in All American Darren Collison. Josh Shipp and Russell Westbrook man the two and three spots. Both can shoot the ball, drive, and play great defense. Freshman star Kevin Love, Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, Alfred Aboya, and Lorenzo Mata-Real run a four man frontcourt rotation that rivals the Jayhawks or Tarheels in terms of depth and quality. Love is one of the toughest individual match ups in the final four as he is very tough to stop on the block, and can shoot the three on top of that. What did rivals rate these players in high school you ask? Well, each of these players was a four star, except for Mbah a Moute a three star, and Love a 5 star. Coincidence that they reach the final four with this kind of talent? I think not. A 3rd consecutive final 4 would have to qualify as a success.
It’s a simple formula. Recruit four and five star athletic players that can play basketball at each position and you will have a great team that can reach the final 4. Some of you may be thinking about Davidson and the elite eight run they made with no player rated higher than a three star out of high school, including Stephen Curry. Recruiting rankings do not mean everything. A team with a high basketball IQ that can shoot the ball can beat the Goliaths of college basketball as the wildcats proved, beating Gonzaga, Georgetown, and Wisconsin, 7, 2, and 3 seeds respectfully, but more often than not the team with the more talent and athleticism will win the game. Kansas played a poor game, shooting just 44% from the field, and turning the ball over 4 more times than Davidson. Even though things weren’t going their way their defense clamped down and held the Fighting Curry’s to 38% shooting. This was a result of them being a more athletic and bigger team. Their talent was just too much to overcome though Davidson nearly pulled the upset off, as senior guard Jason Richards missed a three at the buzzer that would have won them the game.
Rivals and other scouting sites are not always correct in their assessments of players. 3 stars like Stephen Curry can end up playing like 5 stars should in college, while 5 stars like Malik Hairston of Oregon can end up playing below expectations. However, more often than not , the 4 and 5 star players will be good division 1 college players. Is it a coincidence that the teams in the final 4 are comprised of perhaps the more guards, forwards, and big men that were highly regarded players out high school, than almost any other colleges? Absolutely not. Although UCLA’s and Kansas’s trademarks are defense, Memphis’s is having extraordinary athletes, and North Carolina’s is having a great offense, it all comes down to the quality basketball players these teams have. Roy Williams, Bill Self, Ben Howland, and John Calipari can be credited for their personnel, much more than they can be credited for in game adjustments, though these do play a key role to a team’s success as well.
As for my picks for the final 4, I had to take into account the statistic that every championship team except for 2 over the last 20 years has averaged over 75 points per game over the course of the season, and had an average margin of victory in the double digits. The only team that doesn’t meet both of these standards is UCLA who averages 74 points per game. This makes me think the Bruins are the least likely to win this final 4, despite being one of the two media darlings this year along with North Carolina. Both semi-final games are 50-50 on paper, but I think the two teams being a bit overlooked, Kansas and Memphis will advance to the title game, with the Jayhawks winning a close one.