Major League Baseball Preview: American League

As baseball season rapidly approaches, (I don’t count those games in Japan…that’s for another day) I’ll let you know now how everything is going to play out in the divisions, so if you do miss some baseball this season, you’ll be all set.

I’ll start with the American League and get to the Minor League…er the National League later.

AL East:

The Red Sox are going to come out on top in this division. It’s going to be a dogfight all the way through this season and the only reason I’m giving the edge to the scum of the earth is because the Yankees will have three of their starting pitchers on innings limits*: Joba Chamberlain, Ian Kennedy and Phil Hughes. What’s going to happen in September if (when) one or two of them hit the limit? Is Kei Igawa going to pitch? (For those of you who are unaware of Kei Igawa, here’s a tidbit of information that will clue you in on all you need to know: he pitches in sunglasses.) The kids won’t be able to help the perennial playoff push or help the team once they make it to the postseason (yes, they’ll take the wild card). Not only will these pitchers be limited, it will be their first full season in the majors. Every rookie goes through some growing pains.

Granted, the Sox will also be relying on some young pitchers this season in John Lester and Clay Buchholz. The main difference is that Boston’s only relying on two young guns and only Buchholz will be limited, at there are no reports Lester will be limited (and Buchholz’s inning limit is higher than two of the Yankee studs).

I tend to think the Yankees lineup is better top to bottom, but as I’ve come to learn over the past few seasons, it’s pitching that wins games in the long term. Just ask Alex Rodriguez.

Yes, there are other teams in the AL East. They’re just not worth mentioning.

AL Central:

This is the most intriguing division in the American League. I’ve been going back and forth between the Indians and the Tigers all week. After the Indians run last year, it’s tough to count them out. It’s also tough to pick against a Tigers team that added the best player under the age of 25 in Miguel Cabrera. The Tigers already won 91 games last year without Cabrera. They also added Dontrelle Willis to help the back end of their powerful rotation (though I’m not really sure how much he will help. An ERA of 5+ in the National League will not translate well into the hitter-heavy AL). Still with Verlander, Bonderman and Rogers they have a pretty strong staff – stronger than that of Cleveland. The wildcard here is the bullpen. Detroit will be without flamethrowers Fernando Rodney and Joel Zumaya. They’ll both be back mid-season, but will they be the same? Yes. And that’s why they’ll take the cake this season.

The White Sox have made some weird off season moves: adding Orlando Cabrera and Nick Swisher. They also WAY overpaid for some average relief pitchers in Scott Linebrink and Octavio Dotel. Those moves aren’t going to help a mediocre ball club. The Twins dealt Johan Santana…enough said. The Royals…enough said.

AL West:

The Angels were my pick to win the World Series this year until Kelvim Escobar hurt his shoulder. He’ll likely miss the season. However, I still think they’ll win this division. I really like their addition of John Garland and Torii Hunter. Both are players who got a tough break at their last club and both will be looking to prove themselves. Mike Scioscia is the perfect manager for that type of player mentality and he’ll get the most out of them. They still have perennial MVP candidate in Vladimir Guerrero and speed-demon Chone Figgins.

The main reason the Angles are my pick is because the rest of the division is awful. The A’s have begun a firesale and the Rangers are still owned by Tom Hicks. The Mariners will be second in this division. I like the addition of Erik Bedard. But other than that, they have too many wildcards. Yeah, they can make a strong push if everything clicks. They could also lose 10 games in a row because they’re players are so streaky. Felix Hernandez looked like Jesus pitching early last season but then completely lost his form. Adrian Beltre and Richie Sexson are actually under “streaky” in Websters. I can see the Mariners stealing this one from the Angels but I realistically see them being too inconsistent for a playoff run.

So, to re-cap:

AL East: Boston Red Sox

AL Central: Detroit Tigers

AL West: Los Angeles Angles of Anaheim

Wild Card: New York Yankees

I want to note how difficult it is for me to leave the Yankees out of the playoffs – so I didn’t – but legitimately, the Indians probably have a better shot. They are a very complete team and the Yankees’ instability in the rotation will hurt. I’ll justify my pick by restating that the Yanks have the best lineup in baseball and I don’t think it’s that close. How many other teams have their number eight hitter with over 100 RBI’s? None.

*Innings Limits are a recent theory, which is about as close to a science as baseball can get. This theory, developed by Tom Verducci, states that young pitchers should not pitch more than 30 innings than they pitched in the previous season. Last season, six prime prospects failed to adhere to these rules. Three – Scott Kazmir, Fransisco Liriano and Gustavo Chacin – got hurt and three others – Matt Cain, Zach Duke and Paul Maholm – each saw their ERA’s spike drastically from the previous season.

Joba Chamberlain pitched about 116 innings, Phil Hughes pitched 116 (but pitched 146 innings the year before so it is unsure how many he will be allowed) and Ian Kennedy went up to 165 innings. Assuming the Yankees follow this theory – and it’s been stated they will – that caps these pitchers below the major league average of about 200 innings per season.

Clay Buchholz threw about 157 innings last season and will likely be capped around 190 innings.