NFL Draft Preview

Before I get to the NFL draft, I must first address this. I just recently came across a tragedy so severe it can not go unmentioned. Now I want to first caution that this fact is not for the faint of heart; it will try your sense of right and wrong, your hope that good exists in the world, and the very basis on which you have placed your hope. It hurts to even type it. The song with which ABC went to the most recent commercial in the Suns-Mavs game was Creed’s Higher.
I would love for someone to explain to me why this country has the FCC if it is not to keep Creed away from television sets. Now, I understand that on a given radio station you run the risk, but I assumed that my television set would keep me safe from the shitty voice of the hella-lame Scott Stapp forcing its way into my life. I would like to continue living in the belief (as unrealistically utopian as it may be) that the worst thing that could happen while watching the Suns-Mavs game is that the Suns may not win. I demand that I be guaranteed that in the future I am protected from this gross injustice that has been ruthlessly released into the world.

Now, some thoughts on my real topic, the single most important event in the month of April: the NFL draft.

A miss on an early pick can destroy a franchise as much in the NFL as in any other sport; while Darko over Carmelo, Bosh, and D-Wade was certainly not the NBA Draft’s shining hour, the Cards, Browns, and Bengals passing on LT for Leonard Davis, Gerrard Warren, and Justin Smith respectively was not something from which these teams could easily rebound. The Colts and Lions illustrate the nature to which poor drafting can destroy a team. Here are the Colt’s 1st round selections over the past 10 years: Peyton Manning, Edgerrin James, Rob Morris, Reggie Wayne, Dwight Freeney, Dallas Clark, Bob Sanders, Marlin Jackson, Joseph Addai, and Anthony Gonzalez. The Lions draft picks over that same span: Terry Fair, Chris Claiborne, Stockar McDougle, Jeff Backus, Joey Harrington, Charles Rodgers, Roy Williams, Mike Williams, Ernie Sims, and Calvin Johnson. And while the NFL draft allows talent to be found late (Tom Brady in the 6th round, Kurt Warner working at Walmart), the last three quarterbacks to win a Super Bowl were high first round picks: the Mannings at 1 and Roethlisberger at 11.

With this in mind, a look at the first five teams on the draft and the player they should select.

*I’m assuming that each team will make the pick they hold instead of trading that pick. If I was the Raiders (without a 2nd or 3rd round pick), I would try to trade down for more picks from a team hoping to move up.

1. Miami Dolphins.
The pick here should be Defensive End Chris Long of Virginia. Since being taken in the third round of the 1997 draft, Jason Taylor has been the face of the Dolphins defense. While Taylor won the 2006 Defensive player of the year award, the Dolphins defense took a huge drop last season (finishing out of the top 20 for the first time in Taylor’s career) and there have been reports of Taylor and the team going separate ways. Chris Long could have an immediate impact on the Dolphins both as a player and leader. His junior and senior years at Virginia he had 136 tackles and 19 sacks, often against double teams, and won the Ted Hendriks award for the nation’s best Defensive Lineman his senior year. The number of tackles shows Long’s ability against the run, a key for an end in the 3-4 scheme Miami will use. While the Dolphins certainly have a lot of needs, Long is the best selection. The Giants have shown the success a great pass rush brings to a team, and Chris Long will be the face of the Miami defense for years.

2. St. Louis Rams.
The pick for the Rams is Offensive Tackle Jake Long of Michigan. The Rams have a great offensive base, with Bulger, Torry Holt, and Stephen Jackson, but one that was hurt last year by the loss of Orlando Pace. The number 1 pick in the 1997 draft, Pace has anchored the line on great offensive teams, especially the Super Bowl winning Greatest Show on Turf. Pace’s injuries the last two years put St Louis in a situation where they cannot again rely entirely on him at tackle. Jake Long was the first player since Pace to win back to back Big Ten Offensive Lineman of the Year awards and was runner-up for both the Outland and Lombardi trophies. His senior year he allowed only two sacks and had 128 knock-down blocks. He also was the strongest O-lineman at the combine, benching 37 reps. As a Ram, Long will strengthen the line for Bulger and Jackson and allow Pace to move to right tackle, taking some of the pressure of him. The Rams still have the offensive talent that brought them a title and Long will help their return to success.

3. Atlanta Falcons.
The pick for the Falcons is QB Matt Ryan of Boston College. While the Falcons did lose Rod Coleman and bring in a Defensive-minded coach in Mike Smith, Ryan should be the pick over Glenn Dorsey. The Falcons cannot go into the season with Chris Redman and DJ Shockley as the quarterbacks. Ryan threw for over 4500 yards and 31 TDs as a senior on a BC offensive that did not have another pro prospect. Ryan has shown that he is capable of making throws both in the pocket and on the move and has shown great accuracy, especially on short and mid-range passes. The comeback he led against VT last season showed Ryan to be extremely capable in the clutch, leading BC to two scores in the final 2:11. Many pro scouts compare Matt Ryan’s game to that of former UVA QB Matt Shaub, a player the Falcons regret giving up. Atlanta shouldn’t make this mistake again as Ryan has the chance to be the franchise QB to take Mike Vick of people’s minds.

4. Oakland Raiders.
The pick for the Raiders is DT Glenn Dorsey of LSU. Many of the ESPN mock drafts have Darren McFadden going to Oakland with this pick but the Raiders should be set at RB. On roster they have LaMont Jordan, Dominic Rhodes, and Justin Fargas, all of whom have had success. The Vikings had success drafting Adrian Peterson despite not needing a RB, but the Raiders have too many needs for this strategy. When the Raiders signed the recently retired Warren Sapp in 04, they were getting a defensive tackle who demanded a constant double team, could plug the middle, and have success both rushing the passer and stopping the run. With Sapp gone, Dorsey could hold the same role. Dorsey dominated in 2007, winning SEC Defensive Player of the Year, the Nagurski, Outland, Lombardi, and Lott awards. His junior and senior years he had 143 tackles and 14 sacks despite playing injured for part of senior year. While the Raiders could also use help on the offensive line, Dorsey is simply too good of a talent to pass up.

5. Kansas City Chiefs.
The pick for the Chiefs is Offensive Tackle Ryan Clady of Boise State. The Chiefs have had Will Shields and Willie Roaf retire in the last two seasons, and they have had offensive troubles because of it. The Chiefs have a good young foundation on offense with Brody Croyle, Larry Johnson, and Dewayne Bowe which a franchise tackle could greatly help. Clady was an All-American at Boise State, anchoring the line for a great offensive team. He had 122 knockdown blocks his junior year and led the nation with 21 TD-resulting blocks. The biggest beneficiary of this pick will be Larry Johnson who will have a much better line to run behind, hopefully allowing him to reach the potential he has shown.